South African national elections: what can we expect?

With just 20 days until local elections, many people are wondering what the future holds for South Africa. We’re all wondering what will happen in South Africa’s 2024 election and what the future holds thereafter.

Fin Select takes a look at the parties, voter statistics and possible outcomes…

When will South Africans vote in 2024?

South Africans will cast their votes on Wednesday 29 May from 07:00 to 21:00 at most polling stations. As with all other elections, special votes will precede the local election.

Special votes at foreign Missions will take place from 17 – 18 May from 07:00 – 19:00 each day. Visitation for purposes of casting special votes will take place on 27 & 28 May from 09:00 – 17:00. Casting of special votes at the office of a presiding officer will coincide with visitation votes on 27 & 28 May.

How do you know if you’re registered to vote?

There are two ways to check your voter registration process, depending on the type of enquiry you have:

• Online: You can check your registration status online by entering your 13-digit South African ID number on the IEC website.
• SMS: you can send an SMS with your ID number to any of the numbers below, depending on your enquiry:
  • Registration status: 32810
  • Your ward councillor: 32245
  • Special vote application status: 32711

The last cut-off date for special voting applications is Friday 17 May 2024 and applies to notifications to CEO of intention to vote in a district where you’re not registered to vote.

Where should you vote?

You can use the functions above to check your voter registration status. South Africans voting abroad can download the Electoral Commission of South Africa’s list of South African missions for voting abroad in 2024.

What’s new for this year’s elections?

There are quite a few differences about this year’s elections compared to previous years. We cover some of the major changes below.

Independent candidates included for the first time

The Electoral Amendment Act 1 of 2023 saw the inclusion of independent candidates as contenders in the elections for the first time. Eligible candidates could be included and nominated in both the National Assembly and provincial legislatures

The IEC received 16 nominations from independent candidates, but only 10 of those made it to the provisional list.

Zuma back for another round

Despite a longwinding fall from grace, former president Jacob Zuma is back for another round as head of the MK party. Although many had little hope for his candidacy, the MK party is the fastest growing start-up party.

As expected, their manifesto includes radical socialist policies mixed with some conservative policies which favour traditional leadership. We’ll cover these below.

Coalition matters

On 3 July 2023 a few opposition parties issued a joint statement indicating a pre-election pact aimed at a possible coalition in the event of an ANC majority.

Seven parties have joined this convention, including:

• The Democratic Alliance
• The Inkatha Freedom Party
• The Freedom Front Plus
• ActionSA
• The National Freedom Party
• The United Independent Movement
• The Spectrum National Party

Additionally, the African Christian Democratic Party and Build One South Africa have also attended various Convention meetings as observers with the intent of possibly joining the coalition.

The UDM has noted their stance as a coalition party. Knowing that they’re unlikely to gain a strong foothold, they’ve indicated that their aim is to align with parties who share their ideals.

Out with the old and in with the new

New parties come and go with each election, but this year sees new players with prominent support, including:

• umKhonto weSizwe Party
• Patriotic Alliance
• BOSA
• ActionSA
• Rise Mzansi

Who is voting this year?

The voter makeup has changed quite radically over the past few decades, with less people turning up to the polls, despite an increase in eligible voters.

Research by Stellenbosch University indicates that voter turnout has fallen from around 72% in 1999 to 49% in 2019. From 2014 to 2019, turnout plunged by 8%. The mathematician who crunched the numbers noted that there’s a bit of a flaw in the IEC’s ‘eligible voter’ stats. The greatest issue being that while the census measures the population of the country, it doesn’t count citizens.

Nevertheless, using various datasets, the numbers show that South Africa had the fifth lowest voting age population (VAP) turnout among 59 countries in the 2019 elections at 46,7%.

The Government places the number of eligible voters at 27 698 197 for 2024, but judging by the numbers above, turnout is bound to be far lower. For instance, the IEC places the voter turnout for 2019 at 65,99%, which is far higher than the numbers reflected by the more accurate stats calculation.

The majority of South Africa’s registered voters are women, at 55,24%. And the age bracket with the largest voter pool is 30 – 39 years.

What we’re voting for: political parties and voter needs

We can hardly list the full manifestos of all parties vying for the throne, but we’ll give you a brief overview of the big player and what challenges each of them hold.

Before we dig into the parties, let’s take a look at the most prevalent issues South African voters are facing:

• Unemployment: this isn’t merely an issue of work (with unemployment at a staggering 32,4%), but also of homelessness. Of the more than 55 000 homeless individuals recorded in the 2022 census, 41,3% indicated that it’s due to job loss.
• The North-West University Business School’s Policy Uncertainty Index (PUI) shows increasing uncertainty around political leadership and power.
• South Africans continue to migrate towards economic hubs, with Gauteng and Western Cape seeing the highest inflow and Limpopo, Eastern Cape, KZN and the Free State seeing highest outflows.
• As one of the greatest economic hubs in Africa, South Africa has over 2,4 million international migrants who constitute more than 3% of our population. Most of these migrants stem from the Southern African Development Community (86%) with that total comprised 45,5% of Zimbabwean migrants.
• SA’s debt-to-GDP is projected to reach 74,1% in 2024 – up by more than 10% since 2019.
• Eskom’s incompetence – fuelled by former president Jacob Zuma’s greed and cronyism – has crippled the economy. Given his sudden rise to power once more in the MK, this could spell disaster for SA.
• South Africa’s 2022/23 murder rate was the highest in 20 years at 45 per 100 000. This is a 50% increase since the previous decade and higher than countries like Honduras.
• Research by the University of the Witwatersrand shows that people’s voting decisions are highly influenced by service delivery. While the ANC underdelivers, many opposition parties struggle to deliver anything better when taking charge of local municipalities or governance. This creates the perception that change is impossible.

The latter indicates that support for the ANC was flimsy at best, but that those people who no longer support them tend to abstain from voting instead of swaying their vote. This indicates a massive lack of trust in political leadership across the board.

Those who show ‘thin loyalty’ to the ruling party seemed to maintain their vote primarily because they perceive whatever service delivery they had to stem from the ANC. This has more to do with pervasive marketing and visibility than actual service delivery. Among older non-white citizens, there’s also the likelihood that they believe it’s better than before. After all, while crime and poverty is far higher, people have individual freedoms and rights not available to them under Apartheid.

What’s quite clear is that South Africans are looking for change across demographic groups.

This is a complex issue to explore in one article, so we’ll keep that for a later date.

Fear votes: the pros and cons

Many people who are adamant to vote are primarily concerned with opposing a particular leadership as opposed to supporting a particular party.

While ‘fear votes’ are great for rallying the masses against a tyrannical majority, it’s also counterintuitive for democracy. While South Africans may fear that radical movements would take charge of our country, we are best represented by a wide scope of ideologies, interests, races and cultures. The more representation smaller factions receive in governance, the more balanced management we’re likely to have.

This is, of course, the theory – but in real life people face threats to their lives and livelihoods which can only be remedied through a marked shift in political policy. The DA is hardly the only party which can fix local municipalities, but it’s the only party with sufficient power to have proven this point.

This election is perhaps the most unpredictable since SA’s democracy kicked off in 1994. And the outcomes for our economy and people are equally vague.

There are more than 70 parties representing SA this year, but let’s take a look at the big players for 2024.

Voting ANC: an anti-Apartheid vote for nothing in particular

The ANC’s hold on the nation has been waning, with Ipsos polls indicating that the party’s support has fallen to just over 40% as at April 2024. Should their vote fall below 50% this could be the first time since SA’s democracy that the ruling party may seek an alliance. The ANC’s stance on a coalition seems split, with some MPs keen on a coalition should it be required, while Party Secretary Nomvula Mokonyane told Reuters that the ANC isn’t considering a power-sharing deal.

While the ANC is likely to retain their seat as leading party for another year, they may just lose the majority vote.

Another ANC win could spell the following:

• Although many South Africans are happy about the ANC losing power, a rapid loss of votes could create a power shift that bolsters EFF and MK party clout.
• It’s unclear whether Ramaphosa will retain leadership for a full term. Some players may very well favour radical traditional socialist or more conservative stances. This could divide investor sentiments.
• Accelerated land grabs and land reform will be on the cards.
• We could fall out of favour with many Western nations given the party’s intent to align more closely with the Western Sahara, Cuba and Palestine.
• Introduction of the NHI will likely see an exodus of medical expertise.

Voting DA: a vote for the white boys’ club?

Despite public disdain for Steenhuisen, the DA’s regional achievements as leaders in the Western Cape is proving their worth. City of Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is proving particularly popular among all voters for his hands-on engagement. While the DA claims to be better than their opponents, the bar is quite low. The DA will need to prove that they understand the majority if they want to gain more support.

A popular DA vote could have the following knock-on effects:

• We could see investment retraction from foreign nations in the BRICS block who are more aligned with socialist views. Investors hoping for a more accomplished leader may also doubt Steenhuisen’s ability to lead.
• The DA could cede support to more conservative or liberal factions since they are perceived as ‘mugwumps’ (draadsitters) among many groups.
• While BEE requires rethinking, scrapping it entirely would see significant opposition.
• The DA’s success in the Western Cape is a result of many years of work and hardly perfect. Supporters expecting a swift turnover and radical change for mismanaged metropoles/municipalities may feel disillusioned with slow results.

Voting EFF: radical neo-Apartheid and plundering state coffers

The EFF is doing something right which the ANC has gotten wrong all along: preaching to those who are truly disenfranchised. The problem, of course, is that those who see the ANC as stagnating and corrupt are averse to voting for leaders who could return SA to an ‘apartheid state’. Sadly this is exactly the type of state the EFF is aiming for, albeit to the other side of the scale. And while they preach to the poor, their leaders are eager to fatten their own purses.

There have also been some internal skirmishes dividing the party. Most notably, MP Naledi Chirwa’s demotion for missing the parlaimentary vote on the impeachment of judges John Hlophe and Nkola Motata.

EFF support could be highly troubling:

• A rapidly crumbling economy given their unrealistic proposals for the financial sector.
• Nationalisation of mines, banks and other sectors without compensation as well as making all land state-owned.
• Scrapping provinces which will carry an exorbitant cost and lead to widespread chaos.
• The party is averse to ‘White’, ‘Coloured’, ‘Indian’ or foreign control/gain and exclusively aimed at the empowerment of black South Africans. This is not favourable for democracy.
• Minimum wages suggested will cripple most businesses.
• Scrapping IEB exams and offering a R1-million grant for black PhD students exclusively.

Voting VF+/FF+: back to the segregation and Afrikaner exceptionalism

The Freedom Front’s growth is attributable to their care and concern for communities in rural areas. Although they traditionally catered to Afrikaner boere, they’ve done much work for all agricultural communities and regional clusters.

But they’ve committed to a blame game that sees millions wasted in legal costs on cases which rarely yield any positive outcome. We’ve seen time and again that we needn’t merely find people guilty of corruption – we need a system that metes out punishment. Despite the exorbitant costs of the Zondo Commission into State Capture – the findings proved rather pointless.

Growing VF+ support could be detrimental:

• The radical white Afrikaner and Christian orientation in rural clusters could push non-white/non-Christian voters to opt for other conservative factions.
• The VF+ alliances with far-right Afrikaner celebrities and groups could see massive reduction in foreign and local investment.
• The religious conservatism could turn away younger voters who comprise the majority of legal voters in SA.
• The shift back to self-governing racial and religious groups could clash with our Constitution and unity among citizens.

Voting MK: do we need to be bled dry?

The only silver lining of MK is possibly dilutin support for other radical factions, but this should not be seen as a pro. There is no positive outcome to be had from Jacob Zuma back in parliament. While Fin Select tries to maintain unbiased views and news – there’s no pro in re-electing someone proven to have stolen from South Africans for two terms.

MK gaining seats in parliament will spell disaster:

• The party has zero concern for the constitution
• Given the deaths of King Goodwill Zwelithini as well as IFP leader Mangusutu Buthelezi, Zuma may be gaining more traction among traditional Zulu factions.
• Nationalism of banks, mines and plundering of regional and national coffers are on the cards.

Voting UDM: a tedious admin trail

The UDM would be a valuable party to head up the administrative and anti-corruption factions of government, but they’re quite ineffectual in propaganda. Politics is not all about good management – it’s bravado, charisma and engaging with people on all fronts that matter. No matter their good intentions or long run, UDM traction is unlikely – save for their aim of serving as coalition partner.

The knock-on of UDM gaining support may include:

• Hyperfixation on processes and protocols could make it harder to maintain a free and progressive economy.
• Their lack of engagement with the public could lead to citizens making the wrong assumptions about lack of progress.
• While sensationalism should hypothetically not be part of politics, the UDM seems out of touch with South African citizens and could make people disengage from political rhetoric entirely.

Voting IFP: whose monarchy is it anyway?

South Africa’s ethic makeup is hard to pin down without genetic studies. That said, 24,4% of South Africans speak isiZulu as home language. This is the highest group among all our official languages with isiXhosa in second place.

The Zulu and Xhosa nations bumped heads long before Apartheid years, though the latter certainly fuelled the fires of discord. Mandela’s leadership as head of the ANC dimmed these animosites given his Xhosa heritage. And while the Zulu monarchy had amicable relations with SA’s first democratic president, they became disillusioned with the ANC’s focus on capitalism instead of tradition. Disdain for moral decline in upper ranks of the ANC and various offshoots of the party was palpable.

A Clash of Kings and Political Crowns

The ANC’s supporter base is primarily comprised of Zulu citizens, with Xhosa, . It’s therefore rather confounding that the Zulu monarch, Goodwill Zwelithini kaBhekuzulu (Misuzulu Zulu) closed ranks with IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi time and again. One could say that Buthelezi had more power in parliament given his role as MP. And yet support for African traditional leaders is perhaps most visible in the Zulu kingdom. Maybe it’s the sheer length at the helm that bestowed such respect on the Zulu king. He’d reigned as monarch since his father Cyprian Bhekuzulu’s death in 1968.

Although a staunch traditionalist, Buthelezi had meted out scathing commentary of the monarch at times. While he stood for tradition, he was also a man who sought to follow the rules. But the two put their differences aside when it mattered and were far better aligned than the King was with the ANC. With both these men now gone, there’s high uncertainty about the future.

Issues with growing IFP support could include:

• A shift back to more traditional and non-liberal policies which don’t align with SA’s democratic constitution.
• Unrealistic expenditure on traditional leaders and their lifestyles.
• Draconian and unrealistic management of migrant workers.
• KwaZulu Natal where the IFP is most prevalent has seen huge mismanagement, corruption and lack of municipal services. As an economic stronghold, further lack of leadership could cripple our economy (including imports/exports at our biggest harbour).

Voting ActionSA: is it business over basic needs?

Herman Mashaba became an instant celebrity as ‘ordinary guy’ entering politics and rising to the mayoral seat in SA’s economic capital. While Mashaba proved somewhat effective at fighting ANC incompetence, his term was too swift to make any definitive conclusions about his leadership. Mashaba seemes to encapsulate the trite leadership styles of many corporate CEO’s. Those who have worked under such leaders may view new ‘rebranding’, policy changes and reshuffling of business as smoke and mirrors used to hide incompetence.

This is not to say that Mashaba is incompetent – not in the least – but his methodology is one of well-trained corporate negotiation. His strategy is that of a capitalist libertarian whose focus is economic growth.

The party’s manifesto is certainly solid, but a manifesto is quite irrelevant without trust in leadership and assurance that they’ll keep with the programme.

If ActionSA gains massive traction we could see:

• Incongruent/swiftly actioned economic policy shifts which favour certain allies but don’t address inherent economic issues.
• Shifting alliances that make investors weary of engagement with government.
• A quick exit plan that allows the formation of another new party which doesn’t align with the views of voters.
• Leadership falling out of favour with the common folk and upperclass alike since his association with tribal leadership, economic groups and religious castes is unclear.

Voting GOOD Party: the days of matriarchs yore

Research shows that people are far more critical of female leaders than their male counterparts. The Reykjavik Leadership Index shows support for woman leaders dropping sharply since 2021. Dropping for the first time since 2018 – from 54% to 47%. The numbers for women in politics are also down, with 45% of the G7’s members comfortable with a female head of state compared to 52% in 2021.

Interestingly, the highest bias towards women is among the youth (ages 18-34). People are also more likely to perceive unfavourable behaviours of women in leadership as a result of their gender. Moreover, they don’t attach the same value to leadership traits of men and women.

Leadership perceptions	Male leaders	Female leaders
Positive	smart, strong, powerful, confident	smart, hardworking, honest, resourceful
Negative	ruthless, egotistical, narcissistic, insincere	B*-word, bossy, calculating, aggressive
Desirable gender qualities	competitive, dominant, stoic	sexy, maternal vulnerable

Try as she might the stats indicate that De Lille is unlikely to gain significant support. Voters are also more likely to be critical of her past mistakes than they are of male leaders.

Backlash from a GOOD party vote could include:

• Lack of support and authority as a leader could see the voter base dissolve further.
• De Lille’s primary voter base is the Western Cape’s Coloured communities, but trust in her ability to managed has slipped.
• Possible insobordination from opposition parties.

Voting BOSA: is this an ad campaign?

Jacob Zuma isn’t so popular for his knack at lie-telling – he’s popular because he isn’t phased by his own lies. Humans want to believe in someone who believes in themselves and we don’t like to change our minds. (See our article about fake news and deepfake for more on this).

Maimane’s message just seemed to be pandering to too many without a clear idea of his own vision. His campaigns feel too scripted and narrated – even fashioned by stylists – to appeal to the median. What we want is to hear his own voice through the buzz words.

The downside of a BOSA vote:

• BOSA’s manifest is quite grounded, but people may not believe in their ability to effect real change.
• Maimane is trusted by many, but his credibility as an influential entity in different cultural groups and in business is lacking. He may not be trusted to sway the powers that be.
• Bosa leadership will need to work on their common touch and focus on building bridges with the majority voters if they want to hold onto their support.

Voting ACDP: goodbye separation of church and state

There is certainly nothing wrong with a party which upholds the beliefs of their followers. But this singular focus does not represent the South African democracy which so many fought for. As with the VF+, the ACDP is simply not in touch with a diverse, multicultural and multi-faith citizenry.

Issues with ACDP traction:

• Return to highly conservative values.
• Backlash from people of other religious groups.
• Stagnating economy as focus shifts to religious morality.

Voting Rise Mzansi: wild card deja vu

Feels like deja vu, doesn’t it? We can still vaguely remember the Independent Democrats and National Alliance. We had hight hopes for COPE and the UDM. There was the National Freedom Party and Agang SA. GOOD is still here, although hanging on by a thread.

Rise Mzansi’s manifesto is sounds and representative of a united SA’s ideals, but can they deliver on promises we’ve heard before?

The cons of a Rise Mzansi vote:

• Lack of experience and credibility could see investment lag
• Like so many other new parties, Rise Mzansi could struggle to deliver on their mandates
• Opposition from the majority who find the party out of touch with the masses.

Voting Patriotic Alliance: Apartheid by a different name

There’s virtually no part of the PA’s manifesto that represents the South African democratic Constitution. As the Daily Maverick notes – the only ‘pro’ about the PA is their intention to upgrade community halls and sports fields.

The PA in power could spell disaster:

• Military conscription would be on the cards once more.
• No more secular society – Christianity to be taught in schools and be the sole religion of the state.
• Degradation of natural resources through fracking.
• A wall between South Africa and neighbouring states is entirely realistic and would be detrimental to the Common Monetary Area.

Voting Cope: the party that doesn’t cope

Cope is that party which holds the hypothetical hopes of the nation high, without a practical approach to unifying the nation. When Thabo Mbeki was kicked to the curb by the ANC, Lekota was one of the few who took a stance and voiced his displeasure. Despite his role as anti-Apartheid activist for the ANC, Lekota struggled to convince voters to support him a second time.

Cope secured 7,42% of the national votes in 2009 (in 3rd place), but slipped down to 8th place in 2014 with just 0,67%. By 2019 the party settled in 12th place with just 0,27% support and 2 seats in parliament. Although Lekota is clear that he supported Zuma being ousted for corruption, he did not seem all that phased to challenge fiends in the ANC while serving as their MP.

As Dr Onkgopotse JJ Tabane, editor of Leadership Magazine and ENCA anchor puts it: after all these years Lekota is “still ANC” given wasted votes for a promise of a better future.

What’s the trouble with a Cope vote?

• Lekota is seen as a hypocrite by many since his exit from the ANC hasn’t yielded any drastic policy shifts from the ruling party’s stance.
• Although canvassing for support by more liberal-minded voters within the ANC and opposition, no one’s quite sure what he stands for. His failure to effect change with his offshoot faction has pummeled his credibility as leader.
• Cope’s leader demonstrated highly undemocratic and coercive behaviours in his role as Minister of Defence, and many people believe his ‘more liberal’ views to be hot air.

What are the predictions for 2024’s elections?

The Ipsos survey of South Africa’s political support indicates the following sentiments:

Most opposition parties showed marginal growth in supporter bases up until February 2024. Since MK entered the fray, support went down for all parties but the DA. The Ipsos surveys show a high level of uncertainty in KZN with 19% of voters unsure about who they’ll vote for.

The DA and EFF are neck-and-neck in Gauteng with 16% and 15% support respectively, as well as KwaZulu-Natal with a 50/50 split of 13% each.

Predictions for seats in parliament

Oxford Economics Africa shared their predictions should the ANC fail to secure their 50% majority at national level.

Other nations heading to the polls…

Voting is a hot topic around the globe, with more than 50 nations casting their votes in 2024. It’s crucial that voters get involved in politics – if only to learn more about the parties they support.

It’s also crucial that you maintain an unbiased view and consult various sources to ensure you’re basing decisions on accurate information.

KEEP YOUR FUNDS SAFE: Let Fin Select help!

With polls showing the greatest uncertainty among voters since SA’s democracy, it’s better to play it safe with your funds. Investors are looking at more stable places to grow their funds, which doesn’t bode well for the Rand. This is not just due to local elections, but also influenced by global sociopolitical uncertainties.

Fin Select has the necessary accreditation and knowledge to assist with all your cross-border financial services. Whether you’re a South African living in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, USA, UK, Dubai, Germany, Vietnam, the Netherlands, Argentina, Ireland, Malta, South Korea, Panama or elsewhere – we can assist.

---

Leave your details below and we’ll contact you!

Fin Select Article sources

Fin Select prides ourselves in providing news and information which is factual and presents a broad scope of views and opinions. Please see our list of sources below.

SOURCES:

1. The Daily Maverick
2. The Electoral Commission of South Africa
3. The Parliament of the Republic of South Africa
4. Institut Public de Sondage d-Opinion Secteur (Ipsos)
5. NBC News
6. Reuters
7. The Council on Foreign Relations
8. The University of the Witwatersrand
9. Wikipedia
10. DA.org
11. South Africa-info
12. IDEA International (Supporting Democracy Worldwide)
13. Department of Justice (Republic of South Africa)
14. BusinessDay
15. People’s Assembly South Africa
16. African Business
17. Business Tech
18. Vukuzenzele
19. COPE South Africa
20. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences
21. University of Stellenbosch
22. University of the North West
23. University of Toronto
24. Social Research Foundation
25. SABC News
26. World Data
27. Nelson Mandela Foundation
28. LinkedIn Pulse
29. Fast Company
30. Financial Times
31. SA Base
32. Department of International Relations and Cooperation South Africa
33. Forbes
34. Kantur Republic